Keir Starmer's Supporters Launch 'Stop Andy Burnham' Campaign to Block Manchester Mayor's Parliamentary Return

Close associates of Labour leader Keir Starmer have allegedly started a coordinated effort to block Andy Burnham, the Labour Party Greater Manchester Mayor, from making a return to parliament. This move comes after the resignation of a Manchester-area MP, which has prompted an impending by-election.

Significant Barriers in the Candidate Selection Procedure

Several figures on the Labour Party's ruling NEC have apparently predicted it would be virtually impossible for Mr. Burnham to navigate the candidate selection procedure. This is primarily due to the sizable presence of Starmer loyalists on the committee who are desperate to head off any future challenge to Starmer's leadership.

The party apparatus reportedly swung into action following the revelation of the MP's planned departure, with officials and MPs voicing warnings about the substantial expense and electoral danger of a subsequent election for mayor in Greater Manchester.

Burnham's Ambitions and Party Concerns

Andy Burnham has been open about his national ambitions. Last year, he caused anger within No 10 and among senior ministers when he stated that many MPs had encouraged him to run for the Labour leadership.

It has long been believed that he is aiming for a seat in the Commons to potentially stand for the party leadership should a challenge to Sir Keir arise. However, allies of the Mayor have cautioned against overstating the extent of any planning, suggesting he is deeply committed to his job as mayor and would only return Westminster if he felt he had a meaningful contribution to make.

"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," a source close to Burnham remarked.

Current Climate and Public Approval

Against a backdrop of opinion polls indicating Sir Keir is struggling in the polls and many MPs despondent about Labour's prospects at the forthcoming election, Andy Burnham stands out as the only senior Labour figure with consistently positive public approval ratings.

If Mr. Burnham choose to stand, multiple hurdles remain. He would need to be selected by the NEC—where the odds are not in his favour—and then secure victory in the by-election against competition from Reform UK and independent candidates, all before any potential leadership challenge.

Efforts to Block Burnham

High-ranking Labour figures have said that a "Block Burnham" campaign is already under way, with the party's organisation being closely managed by key allies of the Prime Minister.

The Prime Minister personally said that the byelection process was in its "early stages" and urged his MPs to cease discussion of potential leadership challenges.

Andy Burnham, speaking before the MP's resignation was confirmed, told reporters: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."

Financial and Political Dangers

Figures on the committee have allegedly cited not only personal opposition towards Mr. Burnham but also the significant expense of a mayoral byelection in Greater Manchester. This could redirect an estimated £500,000 in campaign funds from other crucial elections across the country.

"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," one source said.

Several insiders also expressed concerns about Nigel Farage’s party potentially win the mayoralty created by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a major symbolic victory for them.

Union Influence and Procedural Fears

Being an elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's permission to stand. It is also possible the committee could impose an women-only shortlist to prevent his candidacy.

Yet, one Burnham ally warned against presuming the NEC would simply reject him, despite Sir Keir's team is widely thought to dominate it.

The unions occupy a significant number of seats on the NEC. While the biggest unions are currently keeping their counsel, sources indicated they would be opposed to anything perceived as meddling from Downing Street.

The leader of the Fire Brigades Union said: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."

By-election Battle

The constituency in question has a considerable Labour lead. However, Reform is expected to launch a strong campaign, capitalising on its vote in one part of the constituency. Labour assesses it is on stronger footing in the larger Greater Manchester section, though it could encounter some pressure from independent candidates.

If Mr. Burnham re-enter the Commons, he would need the backing of 80 Labour MPs to mount a leadership challenge, a requirement that is not guaranteed given he is regarded with caution by some on the backbenches.

The resigning MP stated he was resigning due to declining mental health, which had made it impossible for him to carry on in his role. He also remains subject to a standards inquiry concerning his involvement in an offensive online group.