Why Donald Trump Achieved a Major Step in the Middle East But Faces Challenges With Vladimir Putin Concerning the Ukraine Conflict

Trump and Putin's planned talks on the near four-year war in Ukraine have been put on hold
Trump and Putin's scheduled negotiations on the almost lengthy war in Ukraine have been postponed indefinitely.

Reports of an impending US-Russia presidential meeting have been greatly exaggerated, apparently.

Just days after President Trump announced he planned to meet Russia's leader Vladimir Putin in Budapest - "in approximately a fortnight" - the high-level talks has been suspended indefinitely.

A preliminary get-together by the both countries' top diplomats has been cancelled, too.

"I don't want to have a fruitless discussion," Donald Trump informed the press at the White House on Tuesday afternoon. "I aim to avoid a waste of time, so I will observe what transpires."
  • Trump states he did not want a 'unproductive session' after arrangement for Putin talks postponed
  • Letdown in Ukraine's capital as President Zelensky departs Washington empty-handed

The on-again, off-again summit is just the latest development in Trump's efforts to mediate an end to hostilities in Ukraine – a topic of renewed focus for the US president after he arranged a truce and prisoner exchange deal in Gaza.

While making remarks in Egypt last week to commemorate that ceasefire agreement, Trump addressed his lead diplomatic negotiator, with a fresh directive.

"It is essential to get Russia done," he declared.

Nonetheless, the conditions that aligned to make a Gaza breakthrough possible for Witkoff and his team may be difficult to replicate in a conflict in Ukraine that has been raging for nearing several years.

Less Leverage

Per Witkoff, the crucial element to unlocking a agreement was the Israeli government's decision to strike Hamas negotiators in the Gulf state. It was a action that infuriated America's Arab allies but provided Trump leverage to compel Israel's leader Benjamin Netanyahu into making a deal.

Trump gained from a history of siding with the Israeli state dating back to his initial presidency, including his choice to relocate the American embassy to the contested city, to change America's position on the legality of Jewish communities in the occupied territories and, more recently, his backing for Israel's military campaign against the Islamic Republic.

The American leader, in fact, is more popular among Israelis than their prime minister – a position that provided him with unique influence over the nation's head.

Combine the president's political and economic ties to influential Arab nations in the region, and he had a wealth of diplomatic muscle to secure an deal.

Regarding the conflict in Ukraine, by contrast, the president has significantly reduced influence. Over the past nine months, he has swung between attempts to pressure Putin and then the Ukrainian leader, all with minimal visible progress.

Trump has warned to impose additional penalties on Russia's oil and gas sales and to supply Ukraine with new long-range weapons. But he has also recognised that such actions could disrupt the global economy and further escalate the conflict.

At the same time, the US leader has publicly berated Zelensky, temporarily cutting off information exchange with Ukraine and suspending arms shipments to the country - only to then retreat in the wake of worried European partners who warn a defeat of Ukraine could destabilise the entire region.

Trump often boasts about his skill to sit down and hammer out agreements, but his personal discussions with both Putin and Zelensky have not appeared to move the war any closer to a resolution.

Trump and Putin's meeting in August yielded no concrete results
Donald Trump and Putin's summit in the summer yielded no concrete results.

Putin may in fact be using Trump's desire for a settlement – and belief in direct negotiations - as a method of influencing him.

In July, Russia's leader consented to a summit in the US state just as it appeared likely that Trump would sign off on congressional sanctions package backed by Senate Republicans. That bill was afterwards delayed.

Recently, as news emerged that the US administration was seriously contemplating sending Tomahawk cruise missiles and air defense systems to Ukraine, the Russian leader called Trump who then touted the potential meeting in Hungary.

The next day, the president hosted Ukraine's leader at the White House, but departed without agreements after a allegedly strained discussion.

The US leader insisted that he was not being played by the Russian president.

"You know, I have been manipulated throughout my career by skilled operators, and I emerged really well," he remarked.
Sequence of events in Ukraine diplomacy

But the Ukrainian leader later commented on the timeline of developments.

"As soon as the matter of advanced weaponry became a less accessible for us – for Ukraine – the Russian side almost automatically became less engaged in diplomacy," he said.

So, in a short period, the president has shifted from considering the idea of sending missiles to Ukraine to organizing a Budapest summit with Russia's leader and confidentially urging the Ukrainian president to cede the entire Donbas region – including territory Russia has been failed to capture.

He has finally decided on calling for a ceasefire along present frontlines – something Russia has refused to accept.

On the campaign trail last year, the candidate promised that he could end the conflict in Ukraine in a matter of hours. He has since abandoned that commitment, saying that concluding the war is proving harder than he expected.

It has been a uncommon admission of the constraints of his authority – and the challenge of establishing a peace plan when both parties desires, or is able to, cease hostilities.

Jermaine Oconnor
Jermaine Oconnor

Lena is a passionate writer and traveler who shares her adventures and life lessons through engaging blog posts.